The FOMC statement is the news event of the week and is likely to be the central event for many traders. The focus of most market participants will be if the Fed changes its forward guidance regarding rate increases.
The USD majors are all at extreme points and historic levels, its worth having a quick look at the charts and the news events for the week.
The following USD risk events will impact all USD crosses:
- Tues March 17 Building Permits
- Wed March 18 FOMC Statement and Fed Rate – this may be a significant USD market mover which ever way it comes down.
- Thurs March 19 Unemployment Claims
- Thurs March 19 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
The AUDUSD is at a significant historic level but if we look at the previous drop in this pair, we can see there is room for further downside to the the 0.71 – 0.72.
The shorter term chart has a potential level where the shorts may be considering participating.
The following risk is on tap for the AUD:
- Sun March 15 RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
- Tues March 17 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- Fri March 20 RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
The weekly candle closed under a significant support level last week. The bears have it below 1.48 but we could anticipate some demand here at this level as well.
Some risk to keep an eye on this week. Wednesday is a big day for this pair from a risk point of view given the GBP news items and FOMC:
- Wed March 18 Average Earnings Index
- Wed March 18 Claimant Count Change
- Wed March 18 MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
- Fri March 20 Public Sector Net Borrowing
S and P Futures
The bears had the ball on this market last week with price coming down to the half way back for the year to date. For now, given the depth of previous retracements, a move to 2000 or even 1962 is not beyond reason.
Other risk on tap this week:
- Mon March 16 ECB Draghi Speaks – always good for volatility
- Tues March 17 BOJ Policy Statement
- Thur March 19 LTRO
Good trading for the week! And remember, you can trade these, and other markets, risk free with Spark Profit.
We take the risk out of the markets.