AUDUSD – Some Levels To Watch On The Aussie This Week

We are at an interesting support level on the AUDUSD pair – looking at the longer term chart below.

The audusd is finding support at a long term level

AUDUSD long term level

Some observations from the above chart for a bullish thesis:

  • We are near a long term ascending trend line – most market participants in this pair are aware of this trend line.
  • We are at a symmetrical distance comparable to the drop in this pair in 2008.
  • We are close to the 61.8 fibonacci level.
  • We have had demand at this level before.

Drilling down to the 4 hour chart on this pair, we can see that we have a level in play where supply has turned into demand.

Supply had turned to demand

A supply turned demand level in play

For now, this pair has broken, and retested, the short term descending trend line and is holding, for now, above a previous supply level. We also have an earlier bear trap so there could be some remorseful shorts caught who might cover on retests of the lows.

There is a bearish thesis to be made as well. Things may get sticky for the bulls at about 0.7540 – we have a confluence of the half way back, the 61.8 fib and previous demand level (and old demand levels can become new supply points). We are also touching a descending trend line from the May highs and this may induce some selling.

There is a descending trend line

The bearish thesis

What do our players think of this market?

Right now, we have a net bearish consensus on the AUDUSD. Let’s see if the wisdom of the crowd is right this week! We will post any changes to the opinion of the crowd.

What do our Spark Profit players think

What do our Spark Profit players think

AUDUSD – risk on tap this week

It has been a busy week for this pair risk wise and the remainder of the week has risk on tap with Non Farm Payroll at the end of the week and a number of events for the AUD. Expect some volatility.

  • Aug 5 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • Aug 6 – Employment Change and Unemployment Rate for Australia
  • Aug 7 – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • Aug 7 – Non-Farm Employment Change

No Risk With SparkProfit

Which ever way you think this market is going to go, you can play it risk free with SparkProfit.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

 

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