All trades lead to London this week but I’m kicking off with a little Alpine R&R during today’s Swiss Bank Holiday. Canada is also closed for the day but let’s face it the Swiss know how to do chocolate, and dogs, bigger and better than anyone. No competition.
Here’s the events making our knees tremble this week. Psst – skip to Thursday for the biggie.
Monday 8.30am GMT
Manufacturing PMI gives us a taster of Thursday’s tsunami. Purchasing forecasts have been fairly accurately at just under 50 for the last quarter but you might expect even lower. 10am sees the US version – no prizes for guessing whose economy will look better.
Tuesday 8.30am GMT
Is Jools Britannia going to have a roof over her head? The Construction PMI picks the brains of 170 bods in the know. Only they don’t. The last 3 months they said up but things went south. This month if they don’t say less than 50, I’ll drink Trump’s fake bake.
Wednesday 9.30am GMT
Services are big in the UK and they were going great guns… until they got sucker punched by Brexit. First contraction in 42 months in June. So suck it up services – you’re going down..
Wednesday 3.30pm GMT
OIL – you know you love it. Don’t know why – it never does much – but last week bucked the trend and things have started looking up. Or was it just a flash in the pan? (oh I did… I so did make that joke (takes a bow) I thank you)
Thursday 11pm – 11.30pm GMT
CARNAGE – put down your phone and rest those weary legs – that egg can hatch later. You’ve got half an hour or more of trade tsunami to ride here so it’s time to get surfing. From the BOE inflation report on the hour through the announcement of the official rate to the speech by Mark Carney at 12.30pm. THIS is the market mover of the week.
Weekend pundits have been laying out their stall for a BOE rate cut. It has been at 0.5% for 89 months and until Brexit there were rumbles of an increase due to the improved economy. Now that’s toast. High street bank Natwest recently changed business terms to include what would happen with a negative interest rate – it’s getting real. If there’s a cut, confidence in the UK will nosedive and we want you Spark Profiteers to do what you do best – make money from their misery. Just kidding. But seriously, this could be your trade of the month. Are rates going up or down? Are the markets going to buy or sell the pound?
Wednesday 12.30pm GMT
Non-farm employment prediction time – it’s going to be good. They can always get a job making flags, after all, right? Americans like flags, don’t they. Pay attention because the markets do and figure’s have been all over the shop for the last quarter – so jump the right way and you could be quids in.
Check in on Friday at 12.30pm GMT to follow through
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