Aussie Hawks and American Joes

If we see Glenn Stevens, Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor, walking like this when he gets up to give his Wednesday address to the Anika Foundation, we’ve got some fun ahead on the markets.

feeling hawkish

feeling hawkish

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor, Glenn Stevens, will speak on Wednesday at 4.05am GMT. He is da boss when it comes to the AUD and traders go nuts trying to work out what he means in his speeches. He may be talking to a concerned bunch of ladies who lunch but his real audience is global and you, my friend, can take a ride on their every reaction. Pundits are predicting even more rate cuts after last week’s RBA 25 basis points cut to 1% despite yesterday’s positive outlook in the Business Confidence report. This conflict between business confidence and banking uncertainty means traders will be hanging on his every word.

Weirdly, while Australia seems to be clinging on in the positive its bigger trading crony China suffered with some rather unpalatable trade data since the week started and is nowhere near recovering the CHY/USD figures seen a month ago. We hope you predicted the fall and made money over the last few days.

In other news…

Wednesday 3.30pm GMT

Crude Oil Inventories are notoriously unpredictable so traders love it. The futures market rallied after OPEC announced an informal meeting for September but overproduction is the key. Today’s data will cause fluctuations for you to enjoy.

Wednesday 10pm GMT

Don't diss the Haka

Don’t diss the Haka

Looking a little aggressive there, chaps. But slide over to New Zealand at 10pm for a raft of announcements that will move the currency all at the same time. We’re adding new FX pairs all the time so look out for NZD in the future on TIQL and SparkProfit.

  • Official cash rate
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Statement
  • RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

Make of these what you will but stick around because…

Elsewhere in the world

Wednesday 3pm GMT

JOLTS job openings announcement in the US are a good sign of the strength of the economy. More jobs

Thursday 1.30pm GMT

Keep yesterday’s effect in mind to plan your move when you hear the US Unemployment Claims figures today.

US Import Prices released at the same time will also cause ructions as they’re the earliest released government inflation figures. The forecast is -0.2. Anything higher will be taken very positively. Lower and the markets won’t like it.

Friday 3.00am GMT

Spin that globe. We’re off to China now for Industrial Production monthly figures. They’ve been on forecast or above for the most part but recent announcements have raised our hackles. Will the market be bearish in the run up to the announcement? Is there any faith left in the Chinese powerhouse?

The Chinese Fixed Asset Investment yearly figures also at 3am GMT are a major heads up on the economy and traders will be a little jumpy about them.

Friday 7am GMT

Germany hasn’t been on the radar much but watch what happens when they release preliminary GDP figures. Next week the final figures will be out and that will have an even bigger effect.

Friday 1.30pm GMT

Finish the week with a little flutter on the USD as there’s plenty of action happening at 1.30pm GMT today.

  • Core Retail Sales
  • Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • Retail Sales
Mickey Mouse American economics

Mickey Mouse American economics

Friday 3pm GMT

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – 500 random bods are asked if they think things are getting better or worse by the University of Michigen… Apparently the markets take this seriously and this first preliminary figure is the one they watch the most so the dollar could take a battering if Mr or Ms Average Joe (who may know diddly squat about economics) doesn’t think they’re confident about their finances. Sounds like a load of hot air to us but if the markets think it’s important then we can have some serious fun with it.


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