Rallies, bears, bulls and Ryan Lochte – news for 22-26 August 2016

rallying like a sir

Tuesday 5am GMT

The Bank of Japan‘s governor, Kuroda, is going to speak. He’ll try to sound encouraging and calm, but traders will be analysing every syllable and weighing up if the measures he outlines will shore up the currency. Will his dulcet tones appease them? 0% inflation reported last Monday won’t have made them receptive and he’s got a lot to do to win them over. JPY has been on a downhill slope since 21st July and broke the 100 barrier against USD a few times near the end of last week. This is a key point for the Yen and some traders may be looking for a rally to ride but hopes are starting to fade.

Wednesday 2.30am GMT

Follow the yellow brick road as all eyes turn to Oz for some southern hemisphere action. The AUD/USD pairing has been a little unsettled but data is showing the AUD may be a good place to make some gains for currency traders. Traders like round numbers and AUD has been bouncing between 76 and 77c against the dollar. The construction work done quarterly figures will move things but where would you put your money? Recent building figures have been in the red with bigger contractions than forecast for the last three quarters. Current predictions estimate another -1.9%.

Wednesday 3.30pm GMT

pay_attention_to_me

Do pay attention (sigh) this is more important than finding a new species on No Man Sky. Brent oil smashed USD50$ last week. Psychologically this is massive for traders and a far cry from only a few weeks ago when it was hovering around USD40$ – just shows what a fickle thing the market can be so remember a big swing up can also swing back down again just as far but traders will be waiting with baited breath for Wednesday’s crude oil figures from the US. Last week showed a sensible -2.5M fall in barrels being held in inventories against predictions of a 1.1M rise. A smart guy might say it’ll be in the same direction again but oil’s a slippery little fellow at times. We are still waiting for the forecasts so stay focused and listen out for announcements.

Thursday 9am GMT

The EUR has been giving our players lots of fun as it’s been rather volatile as last week’s German economists’ data provoked lots of movement. This week the German IFO Business Climate data will be very interesting: based on a wide spread of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers as well as builders, it gives a well-founded view of the economy. And the markets will react because the German economy is a major factor in the health of the currency. It’s up to you to decide which way it’s going to go, but recent forecasts have been a little under par with the actual data being more positive. However, some say Brexit is starting to impact and maybe this will be the month there’s a downturn.

All week long… but especially Friday

The S&P500 has really come down off its high and the futures market is as changeable as Ryan Lochte’s story this weekend.

lochte10

Pundits indicate the S&P500 will open near its record close on Friday; and the start of the week will likely see some readjustment as it finds its level. But US announcements from Thursday could send it swooping or soaring once again.

  • Thursday 1.30pm GMT Unemployment Claims
  • Thursday 1.30pm GMT Core Durable Goods Orders
  • Thursday all day Jackson Hole Symposium
  • Friday 1.30pm preliminary GDP quarterly figures
  • Friday (time tbc) Federal Reserve Bank Chair Yellen speaks
  • Friday all day Jackson Hole Symposium

Ears to the ground, eyes on the news, and fun on the horizon.

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