Australian Bank Job Action

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Robbery fail.

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No, not breaking news of a Aussie heist but a week where two Australian banks tease the markets with subtle hints and tips that will send them into a mini frenzy followed by data about job creation and job losses Down Under.

Monday 12th 11.30pm – Reserve Bank of Australia speech

Christopher Kent, the Assistant Governor responsible for economics, is due to speak at the Bloomberg breakfast address, in Sydney. Traders will be interested as he often drops hints about potential policy changes.

A little less subtle than Kent, I'd guess

A little less subtle than Kent, I’d guess

Tuesday 2.30am NAB Business Confidence

Just a few hours after the RBA point the way about future economic policy, the National Australia Bank (NAB) release a figure indicating the current state of the health of the economy. Above 0 is good, below 0 means things are looking less rosy. Based on a survey of around 350 businesses, traders use it as an early warning signal of impending growth or contraction in the economy.

Wednesday 10.50am Reserve Bank of Australia speech

Another assistant governor, another speech. This time Guy Debelle is going to talk at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference in London. Responsible for advising RBA Board members about the financial markets, Guy may confirm hints dropped by Chris Kent on Monday or confuse matters by seeming to contradict him. Either way, traders will be listening with bated breath and give our players the chance to ride some volatility. At times like this, the markets feel a bit like the rodeo, but with less chances of a broken bone.

rodeo-corgi

Thursday 2.30am Employment Change and Jobless Rate

Employment Change: vital economic data released shortly after the month ends, last month’s 26.2K change is forecast to drop to 15.2K and the markets may not like it. Fewer new jobs may mean less cash sloshing around the economy and a tightening of belts across the country. This isn’t good for any economy so this early announcement can pack a punch.

Unemployment Rate/Jobless Rate: this has been steady at around 5.7/5.8% since March but any change can impact the markets, especially if fewer new jobs were created at the same time. More people laid off and fewer people finding jobs means less ringing of the tills in the shops, and this has a dampening effect on the economy. Traders will want to know if the steady forecast 5.7% comes true.

G20 – what TIQL players need to know

The 11th G20 summit is happening on Sept 4th/5th in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

mountain summit

G20 – important but not as cool as this summit

The summit is one of the main forums for international economic cooperation. Countries attending include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United States and the European Union. So it’s clear traders will be watching closely and poring over any press releases sending potential shockwaves through the markets.

The leaders will be discussing many issues such as anaemic global growth, decline in potential for output, increasing volatility in financial markets, weakening global trade and investment, high levels of unemployment and inequalities. But they will all also have domestic agendas to push and their interests are not always aligned.

There’s a potential battle ahead as the US is pushing for a growth plan against the current popularity of austerity in places like the UK. Not sure how sporting it will be…

sword fight

An agreed change of policy by this powerful group of countries could send shockwaves through the markets. Some countries are already leaning in this direction with China itself, a number of EU countries, Canada, South Korea and others taking measures designed to boost their economies instead of focusing on reducing costs. Germany and UK look to be against this move as both still favour an austerity budget though post-Brexit May could be about to relax that stance.

The G20 finance watchdog the Financial Stability Board (FSB) headed by Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, has a direct steer on monetary policy throughout the year but it also feeds its advice in to the main summit this weekend so traders will be keeping a close eye on updates from the FSB and Carney.

According to Carney, the main market issue is the perceived effect on liquidity that regulations introduced post-Lehman collapse have had. This told banks to carry more capital to cover potential losses but there seems to be a backtrack happening as Carney says the regulators are committed to ensuring banks don’t have to significantly change the amount of capital they hold. So which is it then? More or not more?

On the plus side, rules already implemented showed their strength in the wake of Brexit when no institutions actually collapsed despite major hysterics. The fear now is that the banks influence will gradually undo the restrictions and allow them to put themselves at risk again.

So whether you are playing FOREX or other indexes, the G20 summit will rev up the markets. So roll up your sleeves, the holidays are over and the markets are back in business. September’s here.

Crazy season in the markets

Ah friends, I hate to be the one to break it to you but silly season is upon us. The end of August with the UK Bank Holiday on Monday 29th and then Labor Day the following Monday in the US sees many traders heading off to the country for a few days R&R. Fewer announcements that affect the markets happen around this time, but with junior left in the driving seat the markets can get a little… cray-cray. crazydancing

But let’s not be glum – after all, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure and this week, let’s treasure hunt. Here’s what you should be watching to get the most of the markets.

USD

Last week the dollar index was up 1% after Yellen’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole hinted at a possible September rate rise. Some pundits think it won’t happen until December so it doesn’t affect November’s presidential election but this week’s Non-Farm Payroll on Friday coupled with Tuesday’s CB Consumer Confidence and a few other US figures due out this week could give the Fed a positive reason to hike rates sooner rather than later. Both key announcements follow two months of higher than predicted figures. If this trend continues this week, the US economy will look stronger to the markets. It’s worth noting that not everyone agrees – one major bank was shorting the dollar two days before Jackson Hole.

Oil

Last week, oil declined around 3% after an initial 9% rise so ended approx 6% up on the previous week. The midweek Crude Oil Inventories figures will stimulate movement but the trick is knowing which way to jump. Last week’s surprise 2.5M increase evened out the previous -2.5M decline so things could go either way on Wednesday 31st.

EUR

When you play EUR FX pairs, you watch the Germans. That could be spotting when the towels go down around the pool, or if Greta and Oskar are spending much in the shops. This week the Germans reveal their monthly Retail Sales figures. If they have been splashing out, then all is well, but if not, the EUR could take a hit. This announcement could be as early as Monday but the date’s not yet fixed so keep an ear out for updates.

GBP

Monday is a Bank Holiday and the country is closed. This is no joke. The country is closed…

empty tube

The City of London is empty

Happily Thursday and Friday give us some GBP action with two key events – Thursday 9.30am sees the Manufacturing PMI figures (after 3 months of positive movement July saw a decline) and Friday 9.30am gives us the Construction PMI (after 3 months of negative numbers July saw an increase). This conflict gives our players lots to work with on the FX GBP pairs.

AUSD

Tuesday 2.30am GMT sees the monthly Building Approvals figures. You know and I know they’ve been shocking with two months of pretty steep decline. The markets will be looking for a turnaround in the numbers or they could lose faith, but there are lots of factors at play for the value of AUD this week. Wednesday 2.00am GMT the Assistant Governor of the RBA speaks in Singapore and may drop hints about future policy. Traders love nothing more than reading too much into the nuances of speeches like this. Then Thursday 2.30am brings Private Capital Expenditure  and Retail Sales monthly figures. Both have declined and the recent apparent strength of AUSD could be about to wobble.

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Jackson Hole Symposium

Landscape_of_Jackson_Hole_October_2010

Jackson Hole, Wyoming

From 25-27 August, Kansas City Federal Reserve hosts the biggest US monetary policy event of the calendar in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Since 1978, the world’s most influential central and commercial bankers, finance ministers and economic academics have packed their suntan lotion and gathered round the BBQ to chew the fat about economic issues, implications, and policy options connected to the biggest economic policy question of the year in the world’s biggest economy.

This year that question is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future.” What this means to you and me is that they will mull over whether or not the current system and the beliefs that underpin it work and if they don’t, what it could be replaced with. This is the finance world’s version of Olympics with a touch of naval-gazing thrown in – are we the best at what we do? if we are not, how should we change? and, how can we keep on top?

Speculation is rampant among financial pundits. With the next Fed policy statement due on Sept 14th, traders will be agog to see if a rate hike is on the cards or even a complete overhaul of monetary policy. San Fran’s Fed president, John Williams, has called for an increase in inflation targets while other Fed presidents have called for caution. The contradictory statements coming out of the Fed in recent days has left traders bewildered and frustrated. So it’s clear something has to change. A failure to increase rates will be seen as an admission that current policies are failing and could send markets plunging though maybe more like John Smith and less like Chen Aisen.

Improved household spending and last week’s better than forecast employment figures could give Yellen reason to hint at a rate rise on the 14th and a wide range of media pundits support this view though the Federal Funds futures doesn’t agree with only an 18% probability rate rise priced in.

Across the media there is a sense that there are two routes ahead – either a rate hike in response to improved conditions, or a major rethink on monetary policy if that’s not seen as a good enough indicator of improved economic health. The Fed’s own San Fran president John Williams has stated he wants to see a revised inflation target.

With attendees from major financial institutions across the globe, traders will be paying close attention to news updates from the Symposium across all three days. Expect lots of movement on USD FX pairs as well as the USD index and other US-based market indexes across the week. If you’re busy elsewhere then cancel during Yellen’s speech on Friday as well as first thing on Monday 29th as there will probably be a reaction when markets open.

There are certainly plenty of bears around Jackson Hole so let’s see if the markets go the same way when they hear what the world’s finance bigwigs have to say.

jackson hole bears

A Jackson Hole bear

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rallies, bears, bulls and Ryan Lochte – news for 22-26 August 2016

rallying like a sir

Tuesday 5am GMT

The Bank of Japan‘s governor, Kuroda, is going to speak. He’ll try to sound encouraging and calm, but traders will be analysing every syllable and weighing up if the measures he outlines will shore up the currency. Will his dulcet tones appease them? 0% inflation reported last Monday won’t have made them receptive and he’s got a lot to do to win them over. JPY has been on a downhill slope since 21st July and broke the 100 barrier against USD a few times near the end of last week. This is a key point for the Yen and some traders may be looking for a rally to ride but hopes are starting to fade.

Wednesday 2.30am GMT

Follow the yellow brick road as all eyes turn to Oz for some southern hemisphere action. The AUD/USD pairing has been a little unsettled but data is showing the AUD may be a good place to make some gains for currency traders. Traders like round numbers and AUD has been bouncing between 76 and 77c against the dollar. The construction work done quarterly figures will move things but where would you put your money? Recent building figures have been in the red with bigger contractions than forecast for the last three quarters. Current predictions estimate another -1.9%.

Wednesday 3.30pm GMT

pay_attention_to_me

Do pay attention (sigh) this is more important than finding a new species on No Man Sky. Brent oil smashed USD50$ last week. Psychologically this is massive for traders and a far cry from only a few weeks ago when it was hovering around USD40$ – just shows what a fickle thing the market can be so remember a big swing up can also swing back down again just as far but traders will be waiting with baited breath for Wednesday’s crude oil figures from the US. Last week showed a sensible -2.5M fall in barrels being held in inventories against predictions of a 1.1M rise. A smart guy might say it’ll be in the same direction again but oil’s a slippery little fellow at times. We are still waiting for the forecasts so stay focused and listen out for announcements.

Thursday 9am GMT

The EUR has been giving our players lots of fun as it’s been rather volatile as last week’s German economists’ data provoked lots of movement. This week the German IFO Business Climate data will be very interesting: based on a wide spread of manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers as well as builders, it gives a well-founded view of the economy. And the markets will react because the German economy is a major factor in the health of the currency. It’s up to you to decide which way it’s going to go, but recent forecasts have been a little under par with the actual data being more positive. However, some say Brexit is starting to impact and maybe this will be the month there’s a downturn.

All week long… but especially Friday

The S&P500 has really come down off its high and the futures market is as changeable as Ryan Lochte’s story this weekend.

lochte10

Pundits indicate the S&P500 will open near its record close on Friday; and the start of the week will likely see some readjustment as it finds its level. But US announcements from Thursday could send it swooping or soaring once again.

  • Thursday 1.30pm GMT Unemployment Claims
  • Thursday 1.30pm GMT Core Durable Goods Orders
  • Thursday all day Jackson Hole Symposium
  • Friday 1.30pm preliminary GDP quarterly figures
  • Friday (time tbc) Federal Reserve Bank Chair Yellen speaks
  • Friday all day Jackson Hole Symposium

Ears to the ground, eyes on the news, and fun on the horizon.

Playing for the break and the round number on USDJPY

yen has been in a strong downtrend

USDJPY has been in a strong downtrend. Will the round number support?

The USDJPY has been in a strong downtrend for most of the year. The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) have increased stimulus this month on a backdrop of economic uncertainty and this has weighed on this pair.

The USDJPY is consolidating and may provide trading opportunites

Consolidating for now.. NFP may make USDJPY move

Now, this pair is consolidating in a channel and tomorrows Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement at 12.30 GMT may provide trading opportunities on a break out. The figure expected is 175K for NFP and any deviations from this may surprise the market and get this pair moving.

We are trading close to the round number 100 which has provided recent support. Any break downs may meet some buying support at this level again.

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think the markets are going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

3 market-moving events catching our eye today

I'm in a money making mood

Something for the weekend?

Three big announcements today could upset the markets and give you boss-like chances.

Asia

The land of the rising sun might have put a wad in your pocket if you were on the ball early enough. Did the Japanese go to the shops this month? The household spending announcement at12.30am BST has been in decline for months but forecasts have been off the ball. More chances to play like boss with a JPN monetary policy statement (time tbc) due. This is looking more hawkish. Markets should perk up if the expected stimulus is announced.  The Bank of Japan outlook report at 6am could give us a heads up about which way the government is going to jump.

Europe

Fail! European banks are freaking today with the 4pm BST announcement from the EBA Bank Stress results. Nerves are going to be frayed as  Brexit’s recent spanner in the works could have weakened confidence and the test checks central banks abilities to cope.

USA

More chances to jump on the bandwagon or buck the trend around lunchtime with the US quarterly advance GDP announcement. This can be good for currency trading and is a biggie to make money (or lose it) today. With the US economy on the up and up, and more average Joe’s doing an honest day’s work, we predict a positive advance GDP announcement and a rise in the dollar. But do you know something we don’t?