What Does The Crowd Think Of GBPUSD On Election Day?

We love data at Nous Global Markets and this is why we pay for our user’s predictions on the markets. We think this data is valuable, uncorrelated and unique.

One market we’ve been keeping an eye on this week is the GBPUSD (pound dollar or ‘cable’) pair. There are two events this week which will, likely, get market participants involved:

  1. The UK Parliamentary Elections are taking place today in the UK. Any uncertainty around the outcome of the election or a surprise outcome will impact the pound.
  2. Non-Farm Payroll figures are released in the United States on Friday and this may impact all USD pairs including GBPUSD.

For now, this market is trading within the range set by yesterday’s price action; with resistance at 1.5290 and support at around 1.5150. So, the buyers and the sellers are in broad agreement with one another and price is moving sideways. The events of the next few days and any uncertainty around the outcome of the election will tip the balance one way or the other, we will get market flow and GBPUSD will likely move out of this range.. Fast…

So, where are our users positioning themselves coming into the end of this week? The picture gives an indication of the opinion of the crowd in SparkProfit for this week on GBPUSD.

What the crowd think of GBPUSD

What the crowd thinks of GBPUSD

We have observed buying pressure from the start of the week in SparkProfit on GBPUSD. The green line indicates the amount of bulls in the market and the red line shows the bears. The white line is a probabilistic signal based on the total long/short orders and compares the long and short orders in the game to randomly generated trades. That’s a mouthful! The short story is that this line gives the long or short bias of our players compared to trades from a room full of monkeys trading randomly.

The buy flow increased from the start of the week and was a leading indicator of the breakout to the upside in this case. The crowd is still net long but buy orders have not been increasing much over the last 24 hours as traders adopt a wait and see approach.

Its hard to know which way this is going to go but the chart below presents some levels to monitor which may give some opportunities to trade from on bounces or, if they break, retests.

Levels to watch for bounces or retests.

Levels to watch for bounces or retests.

No Risk With SparkProfit

Which ever way you think GBPUSD is going to go, you can play GBPUSD risk free with SparkProfit.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

Advertisements

Some Markets And Risk To Watch This Week

Brent Oil Futures Break Resistance. Will Brent Find Acceptance Here?

Brent breaks resistance. Will it find support?

Will Brent Find Support?

Brent futures broke through a significant level last week and are presently trading at a potential demand level. The fundamentals and pundits are still screaming a further bear market on this but it might be worth looking at where price could potentially go to given the recent price action.

The chart below shows a longer term view on Brent. We could have a potential ABCD pattern completing into the 69.50 area. This level is interesting as we have previous historic demand here from mid 2010 with the lows made where buyers came in (and old lows can become new highs). There is a strong bear candle from the start of December 2014 indicting some supply there a the time.

The long term view

The long term view

Bitcoin – Will The Bears Reload?

The lows have held last week on Bitcoin and we have seen some corrective price action with a potential ABCD pattern forming into some interesting price structure.

Will we see selling on Bitcoin ?

Will we see selling on Bitcoin ?

The recent lows/demand zone at around 234.50 may see some shorting here. The strongly bearish candle from the start of April has also tipped the hand of the bears.

For now, the lows at 213 and the recent supply at 232 to 234.50 seem to be the levels to be aware of on this instrument.

Risk On Tap For The Week

AUD:

  • Mon 20 Apr: RBA gov speaks
  • Tues 21 Apr: Monetary Policy Meeting Minues
  • Wed 22 Apr: CPI
The bulls have it.. for now..

The bulls have it.. for now..

EUR:

  • Tues 21 Apr: German economic sentiment
  • Thur 23 Apr: French manufacturing PMI
  • Thur 23 Apr: German manufacturing PMI
  • Fri 24 Apr: German business climate
  • Fri 24 Apr: Euro-group Meetings
More upside for the Euro?

More upside for the Euro?

GBP:

  • Wed 22 Apr: MPC official rate votes
  • Thur 23 Apr: Retail sales numbers
Cable at a significant level

Cable at a significant level

USD:

  • Thur 23 Apr: Unemployment claims
  • Fri 24 Apr: Durable goods orders

Which ever way you think these markets are going to go, you can play them risk free with SparkProfit.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

 

Some Interesting Levels In The FX Markets This Week.

We are testing some interesting levels on the four major dollar pairs – we’ll quickly review the charts for the week and highlight any risk events to be aware of.

USD News Events

  • Tuesday 14 April – Core Retail Sales and PPI
  • Thursday 16 April – Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and Philly index
  • Friday 17 April – CPI and Consumer Sentiment
  • Thursday 16/Friday 17 April – G20 meetings

USDJPY To Retest The Recent Highs?

A couple of interesting levels on the USDJPY worth keeping an eye on.

  • 121.20 – some interesting market structure here recently with support (demand) turning into resistance (strong supply in mid March). We could imagine a scenario where there might be some more sell orders here. We are at the 78.6 retracement for those who like order in the universe with their breakfast.
  • 122.05 – some sort of reaction at this level given the previous supply is within reason. We had previous strong supply and we have the 161 abcd completing into the highs.
USDJPY Levels

Sell orders here somewhere?

The yen looks quite this week in terms of planned risk events.

GBPUSD: Broke The Lows Last Week

We broke the recent lows last week and are not trading near the 1.46. Whether you consider this a buy or sell opportunity, its a significant level for cable. The next level of significant support for GBPUSD is the 1.42 to 1.4350 area.

Where is the bottom for cable?

Where is the bottom for cable?

New events for Cable:

  • Tuesday 14 April – CPI
  • Friday 17 April – Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change

EURUSD: A Bounce Before Parity With The Dollar?

The long term charts still hints at the possibility of parity with the dollar for euro.

Euro to hit parity?

Euro to hit parity?

Closer to home, the recent lows from the start of March where the bears were trapped may give a small bounce.

Recent bear trap

Recent bear trap

The main event for Euro is on Wednesday 15th this week with the interest rate announcement and the usual press conference madness for this pair.

AUDUSD Tests The Lows

We are currently testing the bottom of the range on this pair.

Testing the lows of the range

Testing the lows of the range

The significant risk in on Wednesday for this pair:

  • Wednesday 15 April – Employment change and Unemployment rate

You can trade all these pairs, risk free, with SparkProfit.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

Some Interesting Charts Going Into the Open This Week: USD Is King

The FOMC statement is the news event of the week and is likely to be the central event for many traders. The focus of most market participants will be if the Fed changes its forward guidance regarding rate increases.

The USD majors are all at extreme points and historic levels, its worth having a quick look at the charts and the news events for the week.

The following USD risk events will impact all USD crosses:

  • Tues March 17 Building Permits
  • Wed March 18 FOMC Statement and Fed Rate – this may be a significant USD market mover which ever way it comes down.
  • Thurs March 19 Unemployment Claims
  • Thurs March 19 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD is at a significant historic level but if we look at the previous drop in this pair, we can see there is room for further downside to the the 0.71 – 0.72.

AUDUSD 0.71 Level

AUDUSD 0.71 Level

The shorter term chart has a potential level where the shorts may be considering participating.

Sell zone on the AUDUSD

Possible Supply Level

The following risk is on tap for the AUD:

  • Sun March 15 RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
  • Tues March 17 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • Fri March 20 RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

GBPUSD

The weekly candle closed under a significant support level last week. The bears have it below 1.48 but we could anticipate some demand here at this level as well.

Support level breached on Cable

Support level breached on Cable

Some risk to keep an eye on this week. Wednesday is a big day for this pair from a risk point of view given the GBP news items and FOMC:

  • Wed March 18 Average Earnings Index
  • Wed March 18 Claimant Count Change
  • Wed March 18 MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
  • Fri March 20 Public Sector Net Borrowing

S and P Futures

The bears had the ball on this market last week with price coming down to the half way back for the year to date. For now, given the depth of previous retracements, a move to 2000 or even 1962 is not beyond reason.

Retracement levels on S&P Futures

Retracement levels on S&P Futures

Other risk on tap this week:

  • Mon March 16 ECB Draghi Speaks – always good for volatility
  • Tues March 17 BOJ Policy Statement
  • Thur March 19 LTRO

Good trading for the week! And remember, you can trade these, and other markets, risk free with Spark Profit.

We take the risk out of the markets.

Buy Opportunity For Gold Bugs?

Oil is at an interesting level at the charts indicating, perhaps, some demand starting to come in.

Possible Demand Zone

Possible Demand Zone for Gold?

The 1180 to 1185 level may look interesting to buyers:

  • There is previous demand at around this level – buyers have come in at this level in the recent past and bought the market strongly
  • Gold broke the highs from October 2014 (although we are trading under this level presently)
  • Sellers broke the lows and made new lows at the end of October but buyers bought the market at that point.
  • We are making a series of higher lows on the daily chart
  • There is the potential for some trend line retests at the 1180 area

Its a mixed fundamental bag for the shiny metal at the moment:

  • Gold demand has dropped to its lowest level in four years – an falling demand from China
  • Russia is buying gold in large quantities
  • India could announce a reduction in the import tax on gold this month – this may boost the demand for the metal.

Remember, the markets can go either way! Successful investing is anticipating the anticipation of others.

You can play the gold market, risk free with SparkProfit

8 News Items Impacting the US Dollar This Week

Traders will be watching the US Dollar this week after the news released on Friday around jobs data. Total non farm employment rose 252K and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.6% – both of these beating market expectations. These positive numbers were slightly offset by disappointing hourly wage numbers which demonstrate low wage growth.

So, it was a mixed bag for the dollar at the end of last week and there are a number of risk events for the Greenback which are worth being aware of going into the week:

And finally, its worth taking a quick look at the US Dollar index futures chart, we are at an interesting historic level in terms of previous supply on the dollar.

USD Index at an interesting historic level

USD Index at an interesting historic level

Weekly Wrap: all eyes on GBPUSD this week.

Weekly Wrap: all eyes on GBPUSD this week.

Traders will be keeping an eye on the GBPUSD this week with the Bank of England inflation report coming out on Wednesday which may be very dovish putting more pressure on the pound sterling.

USD

  • Bank holiday (markets could be less liquid) Tues Nov 11
  • Unemployment Claims Thurs Nov 13
  • Retail Sales figures Fri Nov 14
  • Consumer Sentiment Fri Nov 14

GBP

  • Average Earnings Index Wed Nov 12
  • BOE Inflation Report and Carney speaking Wed Nov 12

EUR

  • French and German GDP Fri Nov 14

AUD

  • National Australia Bank Business Confidence Index Tues Nov 11

EURUSD

1.25 seems to be the line in the sand for the sellers with euro.  This supply level held today at the intersection of the descending sentiment line and previous support (now resistance).

Last week, sellers sold the open briefly before buyers stepped in. Mid week, sellers came in again and cracked the lows made at the open before closing back up near some intermediate resistance made during the week.

EURUSD retesting the 1.25

EURUSD retesting the 1.25

Today, the 1.25 supply zone has been tested and has held for now. The shorts have it for now but if the bulls can get price above the trend line and the 1.25, any late shorts could be punished and squeezed to the supply zone around 1.27

AUDUSD

The yearly lows looks at risk on this pair. The monthly bearish candles are longer in length and more determined compared to the bullish candles and we are back at the lows.

Looking at the longer term chart, it is within the bounds of reason that we could see 0.80 on this instrument sometime in the second quarter of 2015.

0.80 on the cards for middle of next year?

0.80 on the cards for middle of next year?

In the short term, 0.8640 is the level to watch. If price can hold above this level, buyers may push this pair to the recent supply zone of 0.8760 and the unfilled opening gap. This might be an area where shorts would consider re-loading.

Short term, 0.8640 is the level to watch

Short term, 0.8640 is the level to watch

GBPUSD

We are at a significant historical level with this pair and this week could be interesting with the BOE report out on Wednesday. Buyers have defended this level in the past and if sellers manage to break this level with any force, any subsequent retests of this level from below could be an opportunity for shorts to reload.

All eyes will be on 1.5850 this week.

All eyes on the 1.5850 level this week

All eyes on the 1.5850 level this week

BITCOIN

Bitcoin is not immune to the dollar buying with the 400 level holding for now and a bearish sentiment line allowing sellers to define their risk.

400 the line in the sand for BTCUSD?

400 the line in the sand for BTCUSD?

Any commitment in price above 400 and retests of this level may see some buyers trying to reload to squeeze those shorts and punish any short sellers who are late to the game.

If price remains below the sentiment line, the bears have the ball with Bitcoin for now.

To find out what the crowd thinks of these markets – just click on the sentiment icon on the chart in Spark Profit to get the opinion of over 100000 players from around the world.