Due South

 

Cute mountie

Cute mountie

Sadly, no, we’re not talking the weirdly popular 90s sitcom about a misplaced Canadian, but the actual geographical direction: this week we’re mostly watching Australia and it’s trade buddy numero uno, China, this week.

Is it love?

It’s a deal

Monday – ? GMT (shrugs – who knows)

Chinese trade balance figures are tentatively due on Monday, but there’s no fixed date or time so stay alert for announcements. These figures have a massive impact on currency as they’re the difference between what comes in and what goes out. A negative figure means more good were imported than exported and over the last few months that is exactly what has been happening. Not good for CHY but good for our traders.

Monday 12.50am GMT

It may be practically still Sunday in TIQL’s homeland but this is worth staying up past our bedtime for. After last week’s shenanigans, we get a peak at Japan’s current account balance. 

Has Japan been balancing the books? Forecasts say 1.60T but they’ve been a bit over-optimistic for the last few months, and there are rumbles in the press. This is big news for currency trading because if it does go up people are buying Yen to trade in Japan so it’s worth more.

surprised audrey hepburn

We’re a tad gobsmacked to hear some analysts are saying the Yen is looking good as recent trends say otherwise.

It could go either way.

Tuesday – 2.30am GMT

Ready for the night shift? Or are you lucky enough to be on the right side of the globe for this one? All eyes are down under with the big question being – are Aussie businesses confident in the future? The NAB Business Confidence report will let us know. Indicators suggest things could be at a tipping point and opinion is divided. Unlike London, some say Oz may have an oversupply on housing on the way, wages are fairly stagnant, and worst of all, best trading buddy China is looking decidedly… less of a sure thing. How’s someone looking for serious fun to know what to do?

We wouldn’t leave you hanging like that. Buckle up because China‘s announcing the monthly consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) AT THE SAME TIME so if they pip the Aussie bank to the post and announce figures first it could help you know which way to jump… and give you a good nod for any AUDUSD moves.

If there’s ever a time to step up to trading 2 currencies at one time, this is it guys. Limber up, get those multiple tabs open and strike while the iron’s hot. We know you can do it. What’s your gut feeling saying now? Click below and let us know – after all, you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours. Wink wink.

We’ll see you soon for more global trading news to take you to the weekend.

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think these markets are going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

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Daylight robbery of Bitcoin in Hong Kong

This week’s bitcoin $65million audacious hack from Hong Kong’s Bitfinex went a bit like this:

steallyFromBaby

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

it was so easy – too easy – so traders got spooked and the currency lost 5.5% against the dollar bringing a two day loss to around 13% by mid-Wednesday. But Thursday’s announcement has done the trick and seems to have soothed feelings so it’s climbing steadily again. Now around 70 points from the weekly average and 100 from the monthly high traders are showing faith in the digital currency. We see 600 then 650 as key positions.

In Europe the GBPUSD has run wild with Thursday’s interest rate announcements so we hope you cashed in as we predicted lots of fun after a week of doom and gloom in that market. Take a peak at this chart to see why traders were twitchy.

Every single indicator has dropped below the crucial 50 mark and business confidence has tanked to a ball-aching -47. The Bank of England governor insists he won’t drop rates into the negative but seriously, let’s call it what it is, a recession. So what are the Brits going to do? Print more money? In any other industry that’s called fraud but with a pretty name everyone laps it up so look out for some quantitive easing as we predict the UK market isn’t on the up any time soon. And what does it mean for our traders – beautiful volatility and chances to make money on the way.

So have some serious fun playing Bitcoin over the weekend and check back for Monday’s post to give you the big events that will shake the markets up next week.

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think Bitcoin is going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

Playing for the break and the round number on USDJPY

yen has been in a strong downtrend

USDJPY has been in a strong downtrend. Will the round number support?

The USDJPY has been in a strong downtrend for most of the year. The Bank Of Japan (BOJ) have increased stimulus this month on a backdrop of economic uncertainty and this has weighed on this pair.

The USDJPY is consolidating and may provide trading opportunites

Consolidating for now.. NFP may make USDJPY move

Now, this pair is consolidating in a channel and tomorrows Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement at 12.30 GMT may provide trading opportunities on a break out. The figure expected is 175K for NFP and any deviations from this may surprise the market and get this pair moving.

We are trading close to the round number 100 which has provided recent support. Any break downs may meet some buying support at this level again.

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think the markets are going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

Is Brent Oil in a Bear Market? Not while its above $40.5

Brent Oil at trading level

Hold on to your hat! Oil may be ready to drop

Once again, we seem to be at a key level for Oil. Brent Oil is trading at $42 as we go into the Trade Inventories announcement today (2.30pm GMT). From a years high of $52.86, Brent has dropped over 20% and is now trading just below the 200 day price average (a key indicator used by traders to gauge the sentiment of a market).

If the $42 should break with selling, the next area of interest is $40.50 which is the half way back of this years bullish correction. Below this level, $37.30 may attract buyers with its previous demand and the 61.8 fibonacci nearby.

We are still trading at the $42 level though and with the 200 moving average nearby, the bulls may decide this is not a bad place to build a long position.

some trade levels on brent oil

Where might the buyers be?

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think the markets are going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

For bigger returns you’ll want TIQL, the New Way To Trade. TIQL was designed to be the world’s safest and simplest trading app – guaranteed, and with the $10 first deposit halved to $5 just for this week there’s no better time to join!

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

London calling

Guess where I am

Not London

All trades lead to London this week but I’m kicking off with a little Alpine R&R during today’s Swiss Bank Holiday. Canada is also closed for the day but let’s face it the Swiss know how to do chocolate, and dogs, bigger and better than anyone. No competition.

Here’s the events making our knees tremble this week. Psst – skip to Thursday for the biggie.

Monday 8.30am GMT

Manufacturing PMI gives us a taster of Thursday’s tsunami. Purchasing forecasts have been fairly accurately at just under 50 for the last quarter but you might expect even lower. 10am sees the US version – no prizes for guessing whose economy will look better.

Tuesday 8.30am GMT

Is Jools Britannia going to have a roof over her head? The Construction PMI picks the brains of 170 bods in the know. Only they don’t. The last 3 months they said up but things went south. This month if they don’t say less than 50, I’ll drink Trump’s fake bake.

Wednesday 9.30am GMT

Services are big in the UK and they were going great guns… until they got sucker punched by Brexit. First contraction in 42 months in June. So suck it up services – you’re going down..

Wednesday 3.30pm GMT

Oil may have support at the 42.50 level

Oil supported at $42.5?

OIL – you know you love it. Don’t know why – it never does much – but last week bucked the trend and things have started looking up. Or was it just a flash in the pan? (oh I did… I so did make that joke (takes a bow) I thank you)

Thursday 11pm – 11.30pm GMT

CARNAGE – put down your phone and rest those weary legs – that egg can hatch later. You’ve got half an hour or more of trade tsunami to ride here so it’s time to get surfing. From the BOE inflation report on the hour through the announcement of the official rate to the speech by Mark Carney at 12.30pm. THIS is the market mover of the week.

Big fish, little fish, cardboard box

Big fish, little fish, cardboard box

Weekend pundits have been laying out their stall for a BOE rate cut. It has been at 0.5% for 89 months and until Brexit there were rumbles of an increase due to the improved economy. Now that’s toast. High street bank Natwest recently changed business terms to include what would happen with a negative interest rate – it’s getting real. If there’s a cut, confidence in the UK will nosedive and we want you Spark Profiteers to do what you do best – make money from their misery. Just kidding. But seriously, this could be your trade of the month. Are rates going up or down? Are the markets going to buy or sell the pound?

Wednesday 12.30pm GMT

mmm bacon

mmm bacon

Non-farm employment prediction time – it’s going to be good. They can always get a job making flags, after all, right? Americans like flags, don’t they. Pay attention because the markets do and figure’s have been all over the shop for the last quarter – so jump the right way and you could be quids in.

Check in on Friday at 12.30pm GMT to follow through

No Risk with SparkProfit

Whatever direction you think the markets are going to go, you can learn to trade at no risk here at SparkProfit. You can even earn weekly cash rewards.

For bigger returns you’ll want TIQL, the New Way To Trade. TIQL was designed to be the world’s safest and simplest trading app – guaranteed, and with the $10 first deposit halved to $5 just for this week there’s no better time to join!

Please note our disclaimer on all of this.

3 market-moving events catching our eye today

I'm in a money making mood

Something for the weekend?

Three big announcements today could upset the markets and give you boss-like chances.

Asia

The land of the rising sun might have put a wad in your pocket if you were on the ball early enough. Did the Japanese go to the shops this month? The household spending announcement at12.30am BST has been in decline for months but forecasts have been off the ball. More chances to play like boss with a JPN monetary policy statement (time tbc) due. This is looking more hawkish. Markets should perk up if the expected stimulus is announced.  The Bank of Japan outlook report at 6am could give us a heads up about which way the government is going to jump.

Europe

Fail! European banks are freaking today with the 4pm BST announcement from the EBA Bank Stress results. Nerves are going to be frayed as  Brexit’s recent spanner in the works could have weakened confidence and the test checks central banks abilities to cope.

USA

More chances to jump on the bandwagon or buck the trend around lunchtime with the US quarterly advance GDP announcement. This can be good for currency trading and is a biggie to make money (or lose it) today. With the US economy on the up and up, and more average Joe’s doing an honest day’s work, we predict a positive advance GDP announcement and a rise in the dollar. But do you know something we don’t?

Brexit’s starting to feel a bit like the blind leading the blind…

Its the blind leading the blind with UK politicians

Seems its the blind leading the blind when it comes to Brexit!

I don’t know about you but Brexit’s starting to feel a bit like a drinking game. Like when you’re watching a crap horror movie or old Star Trek episode and you have to decide if you think if a new character is going to live or die. Then you drink a shot for every one you get right. Simples.

I’ll show you what I mean.

Opening scene of Carnage Flick – a pretty girl sits chatting on the phone wearing an entirely unnecessary negligee? Dead!

Scotty and Captain Kirk decide to beam down to a planet with an unnamed colleague in a red shirt, you say? Dead!

Annoying ex-boyfriend character gets a less-pretty-than-the-heroine girlfriend? Dead and, oh, dead.

A property fund in London after Brexit? Oh, that’ll be fine… Who are we kidding? Dead! A few more of them? Dead, dead and dead.

Who’s next? Who’s next? The pound? (cue side-splitting laughter as it falls into a black abyss from which there is no return and knock back a whiskey on me)

So what the actual heck has gone on? Markets globally have decided to go on some kind of crazy rollercoaster with prices rolling back over 30 years in some cases. Has anyone seen Michael J Fox in a DeLorean or something?

It’s kind of like this. The British public wanted out of the local ‘hood gang and go it alone, despite being warned that the financial equivalent of concrete boots and a trip to the bottom of the Channel were on the cards. To be fair, during the campaign they had more chance of learning the truth about Area 51 than what Brexit really meant. Let’s put it this way – I haven’t seen as much blatant propaganda since I studied World War 2 in high school.

It might not have been a complete car crash but the problem is no-one believed they’d actually have the balls to do it. There couldn’t have been more heavyweights warning those tea-drinking, flat cap wearing Englishers not to jump. And I mean everyone – from the US President, China and the governor of the Bank of England to the head of the IMF and numerous academic experts all saying Noooo, bad plan, step away from the red button. But the Brits can be a tad… contrary… and if someone tells them no, guess what’s going to happen.

So what it boils down to is this. Politically, Plan A was to have a referendum as the electorate had been promised one. This would keep the masses happy but nothing more. Then the powers that be would pat the masses on the head when the results came in and basically carrying on as before. It was a shoo-in.

But… and it’s a big but… there was no Plan B. I’m not kidding. But it gets worse.

This bit will make you laugh – everyone who might have made a plan has quit. The Prime Minister. The head of the Leave campaign. The guy who backstabbed him. The other racist nationalist guy who stirred it all up. Seriously. There is a fresh new government in the UK right now and guess what, the country just hit an iceberg.

Singing Rule Britannia while the Titanic goes down

Singing Rule Britannia while the Titanic goes down

So we’re pretty much left with a mob rowdily singing Rule Britannia in victory while standing on the Titanic as it goes down.

It’s a mess.

Happily, here at SparkProfit we don’t actually trade stocks and shares. We just predict where the markets are going so we win when markets go down as well as up. Phew!

So all you have to do now is decide which currencies, exchanges and commodities are getting in the lifeboat. Think Asian markets, US dollars, and financial organisations with a big presence in Germany. And which are going down with the ship. I’d be looking at the pound, the FTSE 250, the Euro and UK-based financial institutions like Lloyds, who I reckon are secretly fighting just to keep their heads above water as their passport to European banking was just given away.

Keep in mind that when you’re looking at markets news, you’ll see a lot of EU chiefs are beating their chests like a gorilla defending its territory as they’re desperate to stop any other countries copying the Brits. And the entire City of London banking industry is debating whether or not to pack a weekend bag and elope to Frankfurt. This is going to cause tsunamis for some time to come.

1.35 is a key level on GBPUSD

1.35 is a key level on GBPUSD

Any announcements from the Bank of England, European Central Bank or news about Brexit details are likely to send waves crashing over the markets so there’s plenty of chances to cash in. Hop over to SparkProfit and see what’s happening right now.

 

Disclaimer: All views, opinions or analysis in these articles are those of the author and do not represent the views of Nous. Neither the author, TIQL, Nous nor SparkProfit provide financial advice and these articles should not be construed as such.